Emerging Countries and the U.S.

If you were living in or overseeing an emerging country like Brazil, Mexico, Kenya or South Africa how comfortable would you be to have your nation solely rely on your affiliation with the United States for your future?

From afar you see the U.S. having a difficult time taking care of its own business. You see a group of politicians threatening to shut down their government in order to prevent the enactment of a healthcare program that was passed according to law and a Supreme Court ruling it is constitutional. These politicians are willing to risk the credibility of their government in the eyes of the world for the sake of remaining in good standing with a splinter group called the Tea Party.

China The U.S. and Other Super Powers

We are truly in a more competitive world. China is slowly moving towards a freer market and we are drifting in the other direction, becoming less free, more oligopolistic market. The United States is still the major power on the planet, however it is quickly evolving into a world of near equals when it comes to economic power and influence. Other regions are making their presence felt including Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa.

The United States is accelerating its decline by surrendering its free market history to oligopolies that are destroying the system established some 237 years ago. The Right cheers “free markets” even as they continue to concentrate the power of the marketplace into the hands of a few organizations and individuals controlling these entities.

The United States is having difficulty accepting the fact it no longer has unlimited resources and cannot afford to do anything it wants anyplace in the world. Al Qaeda can claim success with the attack on the Trade Center. They drew us into wasting precious resources and time in the Middle East for over a decade and it will continue for the foreseeable future, even if it is at a slower pace. 

China And Power

China is slowly becoming a more democratic country because its people will continue to demand it. As they transact more business with the West and the people of China get more exposure to our lifestyle and freedoms they will want to be a part of it.

This will take time and those in power will resist the need to give up their corruption and influence. The rapid expansion of China really begun in the 1970’s with Nixon’s effort to reach out. Forty years have passed since then and now China is a world power and growing. 

It may take another forty years before China’s politics and economy becomes more like the west but it is inevitable. Unfortunately, we seem to be on a path of greater centralization of power and wealth. This power grab is coming not from the government but rather from our wealthy class and their conglomerates who are controlling more and more markets and politicians as a result of buying them with campaign contributions.

Here is a peek of what the year 2030 will look like.

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Education: Dumb And Dumber

One of the biggest tragedies of this country is our politicians, and many of our citizens, look at education as an expense rather than an investment. We think of long range planning covering an election cycle. Countries like China think out 50 or 100 years.

The most important investment we can make for the future of our families and our country is education. By 2030 China will have graduated 200,000,000 college graduates, which is more than our total work force. At the same time our defense budget is 5 times the size of China and is equal to the next 13 largest defense budget countries in the world.

Isn’t there something wrong with this? Investing in education will not only increase our GDP but will also decrease expenditures we make to help the impoverished and fight crime. DUMB!!

China and Debt

The war that matters is the one with China. Economists are the teachers and right now the Keynesians are not doing as well as they should because their messengers are failing to deliver the message to the public and congress.

The President and Senate are the blame for this.  For four years they have repeatedly told the public what they did not want, European style austerity; however they have not succulency said  they are seeking a plan that gets our budget under control over a 15 to 20 year time period and up front deliver programs that create jobs and puts us in a position to better compete in the future.

This plan would spur growth and control our debt over a time period that does no harm to our future. Presently we are in a game of we qi with China over the future world economy and we are losing.

In his book, The Art of War, Sun TZU, the Chinese philosopher advises his commanders to induce his opponent into accomplishing the commander’s own aims or force him into a position so impossible that he opts to surrender his army or state unharmed . This is what China has done with the debt we accepted without thought over the past 25 years. If we pay down debt to quickly we fall into the trap and lose
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¹ The West’s favorite board game is chess while China’s favorite game is wei qi. Chess is about total victory while wei qi is about attaining relative advantage. The wei qi player must not only assess the pieces on the board but the reinforcements the adversary can deploy.